![]() ![]() (Shown with double tactics and double Eir blessing) I think there's a case to be made that 170 orbs to get witchy wand at H.Mia's debut could be better than 65 orbs to get her 5 months later when we can do something like this in AR and it's such a high percentage play. I really should make an analysis of that, the effect of time, powercreep, and meta shifts on orb value. So the main question would be timing whether the CC can be put to use in good time to make the orbs worth it. But do the same thing over many banners like this and it'll come out to 70-80 orbs per desired 5*. Save me 20k feathers giving recover+ to some low-atk healer and I can fodder an extra weapon or something like that). It would be more like 70 orbs, get a 5*, and somewhere around 1 in 15 that it's someone like Innes or Mist, whom I don't really want. In practice, on this banner we probably wouldn't fire so many orbs that the average works out. The average number of orbs per desirable 5* is still 80 or less. It's small enough that I think pulling on this banner is justifiable if I'm not going to pull for HF Xander. I just ran another calculation to see how compelling I found the difference between this banner and a legendary/mythic banner, and I added my conclusion above. Green: L.Lyn, B.Ephraim, ? (WT Olwen? F.Azurcorrin? Lewyn?!)Ĭolourless: new mythic, S.Linde, Mikoto (especially if new mythic is not a healer) or someone random like EliseĪppendix B: Akariss predicions for mythic bannerĪppendix C: list of colourless units to appear over the next few months in legendary/mythic bannersĪppendix D: my predictions for colourless for future legendary/mythic banners:įebruary: Grima (confirmed), HF Xander, LokiĪpril: new legendary OR the new mythic we're getting in a week, W.Eirika, unknown Red: L.Ike (confirmed), L.Eirika (confirmed), HF Micaiah (alternative: Laegjarn) Just that 3/3 on a legendary/mythic banner is significantly better.Īppendix A: my predictions for mythic banner If you like most of the colourless off-focus pool, the probability is still coming out to the equivalent of 80-ish orbs for a desired 5* which is definitely not bad. (cf fire & ice, which actually had rates of desirable 5*s very comparable to those of legendary banners due to blue and green being the focus colours )Īll of this said, pulling for Takumi still isn't that bad of value. (I myself actually would like another Grima because I have +spd -res and I can either merge or fodder the res smoke) The rate of desirable 5*s is higher on a legendary/mythic banner when going for 3/3 colourless. Probability of pulling a red 5*: 6.9% (70-ish orbs per 5*)Ĭonclusion: if you normally wait until you like 3/3 on a colour on a legendary/mythic banner, this banner is actually not worth for pulling Takumi unless you use a lot of CC or need one soon and don't want an extra F.Grima, or if you don't want Mikoto and Loki shows up in a week (because then Mikoto has a decent probability of appearing with Grima and HF Xander, which would mean colourless isn't worth pulling on that banner). Probability of pulling a colourless 5*: 7.7% (65-ish orbs per 5*) Rough estimate of number of orbs to pull a 5*: 55 Probability of pulling Leo: 5.0% + a tiny bit (again, he's in the off-focus pool) Rough estimate of number of orbs to pull a 5*: 66 Probability of pulling a colourless 5* (including off-focus): 7.6% But he's listed among off-focus units in the banner.) Probability of pulling Takumi from a colourless stone: 5.7% + a tiny bit (because it's actually possible to get him off-focus, though on pulling him we wouldn't be able to tell the difference. ![]() So when you see a nice-looking number for the probability of pulling a red 5*, remember that you need to shave off the off-focus units that don't interest you. Keep in mind that some off-focus 5* are nice (ex: Tibarn, Genny) whereas some aren't. Based on GamePedia summoning pool counts (which, if I'm not mistaken, are slightly out of date, but I'm not going through the list and counting it myself right now sorry) ![]()
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